The inventory of the hottest glass enterprises rem

The inventory of glass enterprises remained low on the whole, and attention was paid to the downstream replenishment of inventory

supply: the short-term supply increment was limited, and the supply side reform policy was expected

the glass industry is backward in production capacity. China's export products are mainly small and medium-sized products with low technical content and low added value, such as medical consumables, massage appliances, conventional equipment, etc., which are limited. Most enterprises have complete environmental protection equipment. It is expected that the main purpose of the recent environmental protection supervision will be to investigate the industry's production capacity, and the short-term impact on the industry's production capacity is relatively limited, However, it is not ruled out that the State Council may issue relevant de capacity policies after receiving the investigation report

the capacity expansion and contraction of the glass industry are relatively market-oriented, and enterprises with the ability to resume production have basically resumed production in 2016. The cold repair and resumption of production capacity in 2017 or hedging with the cold repair capacity, the probability of resumption of zombie capacity is small. If only considering the capacity under construction with the intention of production in 2017, it is estimated that the capacity increase is about 4%

demand: the growth rate of demand may fall under the regulation of real estate. According to the distribution of downstream demand, glass is mainly divided into real estate, automobile and export, accounting for about 80%, 15% and 5% respectively. The short-term micro demand data is not yet clear, but according to the judgment of our macro team on real estate development investment, it is expected that the growth rate of real estate investment (the leading indicator of glass demand) in 2017 will be lower than that in 2016, and it is expected that the demand growth pressure of glass from the real estate side will be greater in 2017

inventory: the inventory of enterprises and society is low, and there is a demand for replenishment in the short term. Enterprise inventory: the inventory of production enterprises is at a low level; Social inventory: before the holiday, the profit margin of production enterprises in the off-season is not large, and it is expected that the social inventory (middlemen, Shenzhen processing industry and Commerce) will be low before and after the Spring Festival. In the case of low enterprise inventory and social inventory, the short-term performance of glass prices is expected to continue to be strong

profit: it is expected that the industry profit in the first half of 2017 is expected to continue to increase year-on-year. Since the beginning of 2017, we have tracked that the profitability of the glass industry has increased year-on-year compared with the same period in 2016. At present, the inventory of glass enterprises is not high, while the inventory level of soda ash enterprises is high, so the probability of narrowing the price difference between glass and soda ash in the short term is small

investment strategy: it is recommended that Qibin group pay attention to Jinjing's glass, metal and plastic technologies

risk tips. Real estate investment fell more than expected; The prices of raw materials such as soda ash and petroleum coke rose more than expected