The domestic pure benzene market will be dominated

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The domestic pure benzene market will be mainly stable in 2003

the domestic pure benzene market will be mainly stable in 2003

June 23, 2003

in recent years, the domestic pure benzene market has shown a volatile trend, with rapid and slow demand, and the trend is steadily increasing. Most of the time, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price fluctuates. In 2001, the global economic growth slowed down, the supply of oil in the international market exceeded demand, the price fell sharply, and the demand for pure benzene was weak. In 2002, the global economy began to recover.

due to the Iraq issue and the turmoil in Venezuela, the price of pure benzene also fluctuated after the sharp rise in oil prices, and the price was 3800-4400 yuan/T by the end of the year. Since this year, oil prices have been rising first and then falling, and the price of pure benzene has fluctuated. It is expected that the domestic pure benzene production and demand will be roughly balanced in 2003, with a slight gap. The market will be mainly stable, and the price will fluctuate, which may decline in the later period

Table 1 import and export of pure benzene in China in recent years unit: 10000 T

year import volume export volume

1999 5.2 9.5

2000 7.5 9.0

2001 6.2 3.9

2002 4.2 9.0

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I. rapid output growth

in recent years, the output of pure benzene in China has increased significantly, It can basically meet the needs of the domestic market. The production process routes of pure benzene include coking by-product recovery benzene method (coking benzene) and platinum reforming method Pyrolysis gasoline to benzene (petroleum

at present, China has more than 60 pure benzene production plants and enterprises, with a total capacity of more than 2million T/A, of which

petroleum benzene accounts for about 88% of the total capacity, and coking benzene accounts for 12%. The main manufacturers are Yangzi Petrochemical Company, Qilu Petrochemical Company, Yanshan Petrochemical Company, Daqing Petrochemical plant, Jihua Group Company, Jinshan Petrochemical Company, etc.

after China's entry into the WTO, foreign manufacturers are optimistic about China's market. Actively invest in the construction of a number of large petrochemical production units in China, and it is expected that the production capacity of pure benzene will further increase. At present, the domestic pure benzene production can basically meet the domestic market demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated. This is the fundamental guarantee for the stability of the market. It is estimated that the output of pure benzene this year will be

200. The laboratory has been equipped with about 10000 tons of mechanical equipment for the research and development of carbon fiber non buckling fabrics

Second, the demand will grow steadily

in 2003, the domestic demand for pure benzene will increase steadily, and the sales situation is relatively good. Because pure benzene is the basic raw material of organic chemical industry, it is widely used. With the development of chemical industry and other related industries, the demand for pure benzene is also increasing significantly. In 1990, the consumption of pure benzene in China was about 604400 tons, soared to about 2million tons in 2001, and increased little in 2002, about 2.13 million tons. The chemical industry is the field that consumes the most pure benzene, accounting for about

80% of the total consumption. Products using pure benzene as raw materials mainly include phenol, styrene, chlorinated benzene, nitrobenzene, alkylbenzene, maleic anhydride

, etc., of which styrene consumes the most pure benzene, accounting for about 35% of the total consumption of pure benzene

for a long time, China's styrene production has been insufficient, and a large number of imports are required every year. In recent years, China has built a number of production units of phenethyl

ene, the output has increased significantly, and the demand for pure benzene has also increased. At present, the domestic styrene output is about

800000 T, and about 800000 t of pure benzene is required

in recent years, China's phenol production has developed rapidly, and cumene phenol production units have been built in Jihua, Harbin, Shanghai and other places. The annual output has reached about 250000 tons, and the annual consumption of phenol is about 250000 tons

benzene chloride is an intermediate of dye, medicine and organic synthesis; Nitrobenzene is mainly used in the production of various pharmaceutical and dye intermediates; Alkylbenzene is the main raw material for the production of washing powder. The consumption of pure benzene in these three products accounts for about 24% of its total consumption. Due to the sluggish sales of most of its downstream products, which affects the increase in the demand for pure benzene, the demand is expected to be about 500000 tons this year

the demand for pure benzene of the above-mentioned products alone has reached more than 1.55 million tons. Other factory products of pure benzene, such as rubber

products, caprolactam, nylon 66 salt, cyclohexanone, MPI, dyes, etc., have a weak demand for pure benzene partly due to the weak market momentum or limited energy

this year, the country continues to adopt the policy of expanding domestic demand and a proactive fiscal policy, and the national economy is expected to grow by 70%. Although most of the factory products of pure benzene are not selling well, the output will increase to varying degrees. It is estimated that the social demand for pure benzene this year is about 2million tons, and the production and demand are basically balanced

III. international trade further affects the domestic market

in recent years, with the development of China's petrochemical industry, the production capacity of pure benzene has increased significantly, which can not only meet the domestic demand, but also be partially exported. See Table 1 for the import and export status of pure benzene in China in recent years. Appropriate import and export trade

right "Many people in the construction industry have found that the shortcomings of this system have played an important role in balancing the domestic pure benzene market for a period of time.

however, in recent years, the import volume of downstream products of pure benzene has been large and showing an increasing trend. For example, in 2002, the import of styrene was

1.79 million tons, an increase of 11.8% over the 1.6 million tons in 2001; the import of phenol was 218000 tons, an increase of 6.3% over the

205000 tons in 2001, which has a significant impact on the domestic production of these products Production has a certain impact. If the export of pure benzene can be increased this year, it will be conducive to the recovery of the pure benzene market, and then calculate the experimental amplitude and experimental pre added deformation of the plate spring stress state

at present, petroleum benzene accounts for a large proportion at home and abroad, so the change of oil price directly affects the production cost of pure benzene. In recent

period, the price of pure benzene also rose and fell due to the sharp rise and fall of global oil prices. It is expected that the market price of pure benzene in 2003 will fluctuate with the change of oil price, and the range may be large

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